Poland - Economic Growth

 Context

Poland is a central-eastern european country with a population of around 38 mln. It’s economy emerged after the liberalization of highly inefficient planned economy following the economic reforms of 1989 after the fall of eastern block.  It’s achieved a stable growth over 28 years of around 6% , a record high in the EU and only surpassed by Australia in the world economy, and making it the only country in europe to avoid financial crisis recession in 2007-2008. It’s considered to be a developed and industrialized economy, with very high standards of living, safety and economic freedom. The largest component of its economy is the service sector (62.3.%), followed by industry (34.2%) and agriculture (3.5%).

Raw Data Tables

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Real GDP bln $	479.16	528.67	500.85	524.41	545.28	477.58	471.85	526.75	587.15	592.40	580.89
Real GDP growth %	3.7%	4.8%	1.3%	1.1%	3.4%	4.2%	3.1%	4.8%	5.4%	4.5%	-2.8%
Real GDP per capita $	12,601$	13,886$	13,158$	13,777$	14,342$	12,566$	12,427$	13,871$	15,460$	15,600$	15,303 $

Generally, there has been a stable growth observed in the economy between years 2010 to 2020 of around 4%. The diagram shows a natural business cycle present in the economy, with economic boom (growth of around 4.3%) in years 2010-2011, then economic slowdown in years 2012-2013 (growth around 1.2%), economic recovery (growth around 3.5%) in the following three years and economic boom in years 2017-2019 (growth around 5%). The rise in output slowed down by the 2019 covid pandemic which resulted in a relatively mild recession of -2.8%.

The Real GDP per capita increased by around 2% annualy, which gives a broad estimate of the wealth increase in the country. The GDP per capita is projected to increase rapidly as Poland faces a problem of low fertility rate and the declining population, while with still growing economy. The population decline however could hinder the long term economic growth. 

Year	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
GDP Per capita PPP	21,088	22,827	23,745	24,567	25,475	26,862	28,322	30,160	32,987	35,165	33,739

A even greater growth wa observed in the GDP per capita PPP which adjusts for the average prices in the economy and it shows the more accurate measure of wealth of an average person in the country. The country has achieved a increase of around 6% growth annualy the value of this indicator. The covid pandemic caused it to decrease by 5%, however it’s expected to rise again in the following years. It can be mentioned that in 2019 Poland surpassed Portugal in this indicator making it a relatively more wealthy nation. Moreover, it’s projected that Poland will surpass Spain and Italy by the end of this decade which has already happened in the case of Poland’s southern neghbor - the Czech republic, which already surpassed both of these countries.